In a move that reflects the deep political fractures currently engulfing France, President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Michel Barnier, a veteran of French politics and former EU Brexit negotiator, as the new Prime Minister. The decision comes after more than 50 days of political paralysis following a snap parliamentary election in June, which resulted in a hung parliament. Barnier’s appointment signals a strategic attempt by Macron to regain control, but whether this will lead to the unity and reform he seeks remains a pressing question.
A Hung Parliament and Political Paralysis
The political deadlock in France began in June 2024 when President Macron made the gamble of calling a snap election. His centrist Renaissance party lost several seats, while the left-wing New Popular Front secured the most seats but still fell short of an absolute majority of 289 in the National Assembly. Macron, unwilling to appoint a left-wing prime minister, found himself stuck between competing factions: the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, and the left-wing coalition, both of which command significant political power but remain fundamentally opposed to each other.
The snap election proved disastrous for Macron’s coalition, which suffered significant losses, leaving the president in search of a compromise candidate to restore order. His decision to bring in Barnier, a seasoned politician known for his work as the EU’s Brexit negotiator, reflects an effort to navigate the fragmented political landscape and form a government that can pass essential legislation, including the contentious 2025 budget.
Barnier’s Storied Career and Harder Right Turn
At 73 years old, Barnier becomes the oldest prime minister in modern French history, and while he brings decades of experience in both French and European politics, his recent trajectory has raised eyebrows. Having spent nearly five decades in public service, Barnier initially built a reputation as a centrist, neo-Gaullist figure committed to the European project. He served multiple times as a cabinet minister and twice as an EU commissioner, but it was his role as the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator from 2016 to 2019 that cemented his stature as a political heavyweight.
However, Barnier’s political stance took a noticeable turn to the right during his failed bid for the 2022 presidential nomination. In a surprising shift, Barnier toughened his rhetoric on immigration, calling for a moratorium on non-European immigration and emphasising the need for France to regain “legal sovereignty” from EU courts. This pivot made him more palatable to the far-right factions within France but alienated some of his centrist supporters. His stance was seen by many as an attempt to court the conservative base in a political landscape increasingly dominated by the far right.
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Challenges Ahead: Reforms, Budget, and Divided Support
One of Barnier’s most daunting challenges will be to push through essential reforms and the 2025 budget in a hung parliament. France is under pressure from both the European Commission and global bond markets to reduce its deficit, and failure to do so could have far-reaching economic consequences. But passing any significant legislation will require delicate negotiations, as the National Assembly remains deeply divided.
Barnier’s ability to navigate these negotiations will be tested by opposition from the left and potential obstruction from the far-right National Rally. Marine Le Pen, who has built her political career on opposing Macron’s policies, has not ruled out supporting Barnier’s government. However, her support is conditional, with demands for tougher immigration policies and increased backing for working-class French citizens. Le Pen’s ally, MP Julien Odoul, was quick to criticize Barnier, comparing him to a “French Joe Biden” and accusing him of being an opportunist who changes his views for political gain.
On the left, Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure expressed outrage at Barnier’s appointment, calling it a “denial of democracy.” Faure argued that appointing a prime minister from a party that came fourth in the election was a disregard for the will of the French electorate, a sentiment echoed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the hard-left France Unbowed. Mélenchon has called for protests, claiming that Macron’s refusal to work with the left is tantamount to “stealing” the election from the French people.
Political Pragmatism or Short-Term Solution?
Barnier’s appointment, while pragmatic from Macron’s perspective, may ultimately prove to be a short-term solution to a long-term problem. With no outright majority in the National Assembly, the French government remains at the mercy of unpredictable alliances and shifting political allegiances. Macron’s refusal to appoint a left-wing prime minister, despite the New Popular Front winning the most seats, reflects his reluctance to compromise with ideological opponents. However, this strategy could backfire, particularly if Barnier is unable to secure the necessary support to pass vital legislation.
In the end, Michel Barnier’s premiership may be defined not by his ability to unite France but by his success in navigating the treacherous waters of political compromise. He enters office as a familiar figure with a long career behind him but also with the weight of managing a country in political and economic turmoil. As the French people await the next steps, the question remains: Will Barnier’s experience and political acumen be enough to steer France through its current crisis, or will the divisions that define today’s political landscape prove insurmountable?
Only time will tell.
