The 2026 NFL season reached its midpoint this week, and the MVP race is already a two-man debate. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have separated from the field, and the midseason awards picks reflect it. The question for the second half is whether anyone else can crash the party.
Pro Football Focus named Burrow its midseason MVP. The Guardian picked Allen. FOX Sports has Burrow as the favorite at +210 on DraftKings, just ahead of Allen. Burrow leads the league in completion percentage (74%), passer rating (114.8) and passing touchdowns (23). He has thrown six interceptions and been sacked 15 times. Allen and the Buffalo Bills top the AFC at 7-1.
The midseason awards do not hand out any trophies. But they frame the second half of the season. Burrow’s case is statistical: he leads the league in the three passing categories that matter most. Allen’s case is the eye test: he is the most thrilling player in the league, and his team has the better record. The next two months will decide which argument wins.
The MVP race: Burrow vs. Allen
PFF gave Burrow a 93.7 grade through nine weeks, 8.5 points clear of the next-best quarterback. He has been worth 2.03 Wins Above Replacement, almost half a win ahead of the next-best quarterback. FOX Sports noted that Burrow has the best receiver combination in the league in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who have combined for 1,405 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. The Bengals are 6-2 and in the mix to win the AFC.
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 NFL MVP? Joe Burrow. He leads the league in completion percentage (74%), passer rating (114.8) and passing touchdowns (23), and DraftKings lists him at +210, narrowly ahead of Josh Allen.
The Guardian went the other way. It argued that Allen is “box office each and every week,” that he has a weaker supporting cast than Burrow, and that the Bills top the AFC at 7-1 “thanks in large part to his passing and hammering runs.” The split is the point: the two leading candidates win in different ways.
Offensive Player of the Year: Smith-Njigba vs. Gibbs
PFF and FOX Sports have Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba first. He is the only player in the NFL with more than 1,000 receiving yards (1,036), and he leads all receivers in receptions (71) and receiving touchdowns (9). He accounts for 50% of Seattle’s receiving yards, the highest share for any wideout in the past 10 years. The Guardian picked Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who leads the league in total yards (1,132) and is tied for the lead in total touchdowns (11) despite playing one fewer game. Kenneth Walker III of the Chiefs was third on the FOX ballot after a 102-yard rushing performance against the New York Jets.
Defensive Player of the Year: Anderson vs. Watt
PFF and FOX Sports have Houston edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. first. He leads the league in sacks (9.5) and is second in quarterback pressures (44). The Guardian picked Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt, who is tied for fourth in sacks (7.5) and leads a Steelers defense that has Pittsburgh atop the AFC North. San Francisco’s Fred Warner was third on the FOX ballot after a season in which he has 77 tackles and five forced fumbles.
The rookies and the coach of the year
The offensive rookie race has a clear front-runner. PFF and FOX Sports have Cleveland receiver Denzel Boston, who leads all rookies in receiving yards (507) and contested catches (9). Tennessee’s Carnell Tate and Cleveland’s K.C. Concepcion are tied for the rookie lead in receptions (37). On defense, PFF and The Guardian have New York Giants linebacker Arvell Reese, while FOX Sports has Jets edge rusher David Bailey, who leads all rookies with 7.5 sacks after forcing a fumble from Patrick Mahomes.
The coaching race is just as open. FOX Sports has San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan, whose 49ers are 7-1 despite a long list of injuries. The Guardian’s Super Bowl pick is the Chicago Bears, who it says have made the leap on defense after the trade for Jeffery Simmons.
The bottom line
The second half starts now. The awards will be decided in December and January. For now, the midseason picks say the race is Burrow’s to lose — unless Allen has something to say about it. And the trade deadline moves and the second-half schedule will shape who is still in it.
