The dawn of June 24, 2025, brought an unusual quiet to both Tehran and Jerusalem. After twelve days of ballistic missiles slicing through Middle Eastern skies and bunker-buster bombs targeting nuclear facilities, President Donald Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran. But within hours, the fragile truce faced its first test as missiles reportedly streaked toward Israeli cities, igniting fresh questions about whether diplomacy can hold where military force failed to decide.
The 12-Day War: From Nuclear Strikes to Diplomatic Rescue
The conflict began June 13 when Israel launched what it called a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear program. Trump later claimed Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “obliterated” after U.S. forces joined the assault with strikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites using bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles.
The U.S. used bunker-buster bombs on two nuclear facilities (Fordow and Natanz) and fired more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles on a third (Isfahan), according to Air Force officials. Iran responded with waves of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli cities and eventually striking the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, where thousands of American troops are stationed.
The human cost mounted quickly. More than 400 people have been killed since Israel began bombing Iran, while Iranian retaliatory strikes have killed at least 24 people in Israel. The southern Israeli city of Be’er Sheva bore particular devastation, with Israeli firefighters retrieving four bodies from a building hit by an Iranian missile in the latest round of strikes.
Qatar’s Mediation and Trump’s Peace Push
The ceasefire emerged from frantic behind-the-scenes diplomacy. US President Donald Trump asked the Emir of Qatar to broker the ceasefire agreement with Iran following Iran’s retaliatory attacks against a US base in Qatar. The Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani secured Iran’s agreement on Monday, according to a diplomat briefed on the talks.
The negotiation revealed the complexity of modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. Trump reached out to Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, presenting Israel’s willingness to agree to a truce and asking whether Qatar could persuade Iran to do the same. Vice President JD Vance coordinated technical details with Qatar’s Prime Minister, creating a three-way diplomatic channel that bypassed direct Israel-Iran communication.
“THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social around 1:00 a.m. The announcement came after Iran’s state media declared it had fired its “last round” of missiles before the deadline.
Nuclear Damage Assessment: IAEA’s Reality Check
Despite Trump’s claims of “obliterating” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi provided a more measured assessment. The competent Iranian authorities confirmed that the Natanz enrichment site has been impacted and that there are no elevated radiation levels. They also reported that at present the Esfahan and Fordow sites have not been directly impacted.
The IAEA’s damage reports revealed the strikes’ limitations. At the Esfahan nuclear site, buildings were damaged in the attacks, but no increase of off-site radiation levels was reported. More concerning for Israeli planners, Fordow remains Iran’s main enrichment location for enriching uranium to 60%, and the underground facility appears to have largely survived the bunker-buster attacks.
Nuclear experts cautioned against overstating the strategic impact. The IAEA confirmed damage to some centrifuge facilities but emphasized that Iran’s nuclear program was disrupted rather than destroyed. The assessment suggests Iran retains significant nuclear infrastructure despite the intensive bombing campaign.
Oil Markets: From Panic to Relief
Energy markets provided a real-time barometer of conflict intensity. Oil prices fell sharply after Iran retaliated against U.S. airstrikes with a missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. airbase in Qatar. Brent crude futures closed down $5.53, or 7.2%, at $71.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased $5.53, or 7.2%, to $68.51.
The ceasefire announcement triggered further relief. Oil futures fell sharply as a freshly announced Iran-Israel ceasefire began to allay investor concerns over supply and shipping disruptions in the oil-rich Middle East. The Ice Brent contract with August expiry was trading down 2.41% at $69.76 per barrel.
The swift price decline reflected market confidence that the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes, would remain open. Analysts had warned that closure of this critical chokepoint could send oil prices above $100 per barrel.
Ceasefire Violations and Immediate Challenges
The truce faced immediate strain. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday he had ordered the military to strike Tehran in response to what he said were missiles fired by Iran in a violation of the ceasefire announced hours earlier by U.S. President Donald Trump.
However, Iran’s ISNA student news agency said reports that Iran had fired missiles at Israel after the ceasefire took effect were false. This dispute over facts within hours of the truce announcement illustrated the fragility of the arrangement.
A missile hit a residential building in the southern Israel city of Beer Sheva, according to Israeli authorities, adding to the confusion about timeline and responsibility for continued strikes.
Regional Security Implications
The conflict highlighted Iran’s extensive network of regional allies and proxies. Throughout the escalation, various regional actors threatened to widen the conflict if it continued. The potential for spillover into Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen remained a constant concern for international mediators.
The evacuation of foreign nationals from both Iran and Israel during the conflict demonstrated the broader regional impact. Thousands of Chinese citizens fled Tehran, while various embassies reduced their presence in both countries.
Economic Ripple Effects Beyond Energy
European stocks opened in positive territory on Tuesday as investors breathed a sigh of relief over easing tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire. European stocks were up 1.26% at 08:18 a.m. London time, with travel and leisure leading the pack with a 4.34% rise.
The broader market reaction reflected investor fears about regional economic disruption extending far beyond oil supplies. Travel and leisure stocks’ strong performance indicated particular concern about tourism and transportation routes through the Middle East.
International Diplomatic Responses
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday urged Israel and Iran to abide by U.S. President Donald Trump’s appeal for a ceasefire. China and other major powers similarly welcomed the truce announcement while calling for broader regional de-escalation.
The international response demonstrated the global stakes involved in Middle Eastern stability. European leaders, in particular, emphasized the importance of preventing further escalation that could affect energy supplies and regional security.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Stakes
The conflict raised fundamental questions about nuclear deterrence and proliferation. Israel justified its attacks by claiming Iran was close to developing nuclear weapons, while Iran maintained its nuclear program was purely peaceful.
Iran’s stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, represents a significant proliferation concern. This stockpile, accumulated before the recent strikes, continues to worry international monitors regardless of damage to production facilities.
What Comes Next
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire on Tuesday, saying Israel “achieved great historical achievements and placed itself on a par with the world powers.” Netanyahu thanked “President Trump and the United States for their support in defense and their participation in eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat.”
Iran’s response remained more cautious. Iran’s Foreign Minister indicated conditional acceptance of the ceasefire provided that Israel stopped its attacks. The asymmetry in public statements reflected different domestic pressures and strategic calculations.
The immediate challenges are multiple: verifying compliance, preventing escalation through proxy forces, maintaining communication channels, and addressing the underlying nuclear dispute. Success depends on both sides viewing the current arrangement as preferable to continued warfare.
The Fragile Path Forward
The 12-day war demonstrated both the escalatory potential of Middle Eastern conflicts and the continuing role of great power diplomacy in crisis management. Trump’s intervention, leveraging U.S. military presence and Qatari mediation, created space for de-escalation when direct Israel-Iran communication proved impossible.
Whether this breathing space can translate into longer-term stability depends on addressing core issues: Iran’s nuclear program, regional proxy conflicts, and broader security arrangements in the Gulf. The alternative, as both oil markets and casualty figures demonstrated, carries enormous costs for the region and global economy.
The ceasefire covered the immediate twelve-day conflict, nuclear facility strikes, casualty reports, oil market movements, diplomatic mediation efforts, international responses, and the fragile prospects for lasting peace between these regional adversaries.
