Since Kamala Harris took the mantle from Biden, who had decided to drop out due to mounting pressure, she has collected funds, gave a moving speech, put in a shift during the second presidential debate and has seen her chances grow in numerous polls. US elections are less than just 2 months away, candidates and voters are gearing up for what promises to be a thrilling show of a democracy with a lot on the line.
Just months ago, the prospect of Joe Biden going against the former president and the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, seemed like a battle in vain. Then things changed abruptly when Harris decided to step in for the contest.
Renowned American statistician Nate Silver shared data on September 17 2024 which showed Harris with a nearly 49% chance of winning the popular vote, an almost 3% lead over Trump who had an approximately 46% probability.
In a poll conducted by USA Today news and Suffolk University that was released on September 16, Harris led Trump by 49% to 46% in Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state in the election. The poll of 500 people in the state noted a 4.4% margin of error, meaning the race in the state is still too close to call.
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The polls also showed Harris leading Trump nationally with a 47.6% to 43.3%, a turnaround of 8 points for the Democrats since Biden dropped out after the first debate, when Trump was leading the US president by 4 points.
The poll mentioned that Harris has also managed to shore up young voters and amongst the people of Colorado, where she has seen a 24-point swing among young voters, 18 points among Hispanics and a 17-point swing among black voters.
Apart from the numerous polls, betting markets are also swinging, with various betting companies factoring Harris to win the presidential election. Betfair Exchange, a U.K.-based betting platform, and Polymarket, a crypto-trading and betting platform, have both predicted a Harris win with the Vice President leading Trump.
In short, Nate Silver, the statistician, predicts a close race in which Kamala Harris continues to lead Donald Trump in key national polls. Betting markets are factoring a Harris win.
