Russia has revived its demand that NATO withdraw troops and bases from much of Eastern Europe and pull back to its 1997 borders as a condition for ending the war in Ukraine, according to a document circulated in this week’s peace talks and obtained by The New York Times.
The document, an informal diplomatic “non-paper” dated Nov. 10, was circulated by Russian officials during talks in Abu Dhabi, the first face-to-face meeting of U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials since February. It echoes the draft treaties Russia issued in December 2021, two months before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
For European governments, the paper means the endgame of the war is no longer only about Ukraine’s borders. Russia is seeking to redraw the security arrangements of the continent, and the demand puts the question of European security at the center of the negotiations. For readers in Europe and beyond, it raises the question of whether any settlement would leave Poland, the Baltic states and Finland more exposed.
Russia’s NATO pullback demands
The paper says NATO countries must rule out further expansion of the alliance and any military activity in Ukraine, elsewhere in Eastern Europe, in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia. It calls for an end to “the supply of any type of Western weapons and military equipment and products to Ukraine.”
Russia would allow Ukraine to join the European Union only if Ukraine stays out of the bloc’s common defense policy. The paper also asks France and Britain to rule out using their nuclear weapons to protect other European countries, an idea discussed in Europe over the past year.
The Kremlin has put back on the table its December 2021 proposal, which would have barred Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO and rolled back alliance military infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe. Western leaders dismissed those demands as an unacceptable ultimatum; two months later Moscow launched its full-scale invasion.
Putin’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said the key provisions were “the non-expansion of the NATO bloc; non-deployment of weapons systems that pose a threat to us near Russia’s borders; and a return of the alliance’s force posture to the configuration that existed” in 1997, RFE/RL reported.
Finland, the Baltics and territory
A report in the German newspaper Bild added that the proposal would require Finland to withdraw from NATO and bar alliance military bases in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Bild said Russia would keep all Ukrainian territory it occupies and gain the whole Donbas region, while the ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv would be demilitarized. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that Russia had demanded Finland’s withdrawal. “I don’t know about it. No, it was not,” he told reporters, according to Türkiye Today.
Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said Moscow’s goal was a “new, modern Yalta and Potsdam” – a reference to the 1945 meetings where the United States, the Soviet Union and Britain decided the fate of parts of postwar Europe.
How Europe responded
Finland’s defense minister, Antti Häkkänen, said the reported demands were not open to negotiation. “Such matters are in no way a matter for negotiation. Russia knows that. This is absolutely outrageous to even suggest such a thing,” he said, according to Yle.
Finland’s foreign minister, Elina Valtonen, said Russia’s efforts to extend the talks beyond Ukraine suggested Moscow was in no hurry to reach an agreement. She called on Russia to agree to a ceasefire.
Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said “accepting Russia’s conditions would mean a direct threat to Poland’s security.” The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, called Russia’s demands for a new European security architecture a “trap” designed to shift attention away from a ceasefire.
Where the talks stand
After Abu Dhabi, the U.S. envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, traveled to Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin on Thursday and then to Dublin to brief Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kushner said both sides had agreed to expand the next round of negotiations to include European partners.
Putin is set to meet President Donald Trump next week in Shenzhen, China, at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Nov. 18-19. Zelensky has warned that a three-way meeting with President Xi Jinping could become a “redistribution of spheres of influence.”
The document carries no letterhead or signature, and Russian officials indicated that Putin could still be flexible. Yet the opening position is virtually unchanged from 2021, which shows how far apart the sides remain.
Will NATO pull back to its 1997 borders? No. NATO members have rejected the demand. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called it a direct threat to Poland’s security, and Finland said its membership was a matter for Finland and the alliance. U.S. envoys have told Russia that much has changed since December 2021.
Kushner said details of the next negotiating rounds and their schedules would be announced soon. Check back for updates.
