Matt Van Epps addressing supporters during a campaign event in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, as posted by his official campaign account on X.

CruxBuzz Staff

Van Epps Wins Tennessee 7th but GOP Margin Collapses 13 Points from Trump’s 22-Point 2024 Victory

Donald Trump, election, Election Statistics, Republican Party, US Politics

Tennessee 7th District Special Election 2025 – Results & Analysis
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District held a special election on December 2, 2025, following the vacancy created when Republican Mark Green resigned on July 20, 2025. Green stepped down to pursue a private sector opportunity. Republican candidate Matt Van Epps, a former state official and West Point graduate with military service, faced Democratic state representative Aftyn Behn in a race that drew national attention and significant campaign resources from both parties. The district, which voted for Donald Trump by approximately 22 points in the 2024 presidential election, became a test of whether Democrats could narrow traditional Republican margins through focus on affordability and local quality-of-life issues.
Special Election Results | December 2, 2025
Republicans Retain Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District Seat
Van Epps: 53.9% Behn: 45.0% Margin: 8.9 points
53.9%
Matt Van Epps (R)
45.0%
Aftyn Behn (D)
~179,899
Total Votes Cast
+22 pts
Trump 2024 Margin

County Performance: Democratic Gains in Urban Areas

County Van Epps % Behn % Margin 2024 Shift
Montgomery 54% 46% +8 ~10 pts D
Davidson (Nashville) 22% 78% +56 D ~20 pts D
Cheatham 67% 33% +34 ~12 pts D
Benton 73% 27% +46 ~7 pts D
Decatur 69% 31% +38 ~8 pts D
Other Counties 65% 35% +30 ~8 pts D
Note: Results compiled from AP Election Results and Tennessee Secretary of State. 2024 shift estimates based on published county-level comparisons.

The 13-Point Margin Collapse: Trump to Van Epps

Trump 2024
+22 pts
Presidential Performance
Trump won the district by 22 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election
Van Epps 2025
+8.9 pts
Congressional Race
Van Epps won by 8.9 percentage points—a 13-point reduction from Trump’s margin
Democratic Gain
+13 pts
Net Improvement
Democrats narrowed the Republican advantage by 13 percentage points compared to 2024

How Counties Shifted: Interactive County Breakdown

Each bar displays how much each county shifted toward Democrats compared to the 2024 presidential election. Larger rightward shifts indicate stronger Democratic gains in that area.
Davidson
+20 pts
Cheatham
+12 pts
Decatur
+8 pts
Montgomery
+10 pts
Benton
+7 pts

Early Voting vs Election Day: Where Van Epps Gained Ground

Key Finding: Although Behn led among early/absentee votes, Van Epps performed significantly stronger on Election Day, delivering the margin needed for his victory. This pattern reflects Republican turnout advantage during in-person voting.

Timeline: From Resignation to Election

July 20, 2025
Republican Rep. Mark Green officially resigned from Congress after voting for the reconciliation bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). His departure left the House Republican margin at 219-212.
October 7, 2025
Special primary election held. Matt Van Epps, a Tennessee Army National Guard lieutenant colonel with military deployment experience, won the Republican primary with 51.56%. Aftyn Behn won the Democratic primary with 27.89%.
November 12–26, 2025
In-person early voting period. Both campaigns mobilized national resources. Democratic leaders and Republican figures conducted campaign events in the district.
December 2, 2025
Special election held. Van Epps won with 53.9% versus Behn’s 45.0%, with a final margin of 8.9 percentage points—13 points lower than Trump’s 2024 performance in the district.

Six Key Facts About the Result

1
Republicans Held, But Narrowly
Van Epps secured the seat with 53.9% of votes, maintaining Republican control of a district that has voted Republican for over four decades. The seat has not elected a Democrat since the 1980s.
2
13-Point Margin Drop
The Republican advantage fell from 22 points (Trump 2024) to 8.9 points (Van Epps 2025). This represents a significant Democratic gain in a traditionally strong Republican district.
3
Urban Areas Shifted Blue
Davidson County (Nashville) swung approximately 20 points more Democratic than in 2024. Urban and suburban counties showed the strongest movement toward the Democratic candidate.
4
Local Issues Drove Engagement
Behn’s campaign emphasized cost of living, healthcare access, and affordability. Van Epps also addressed these concerns, indicating that local economic issues resonated broadly across the electorate.
5
Election Day Turnout Decided the Race
Behn held an advantage in early/absentee voting, but Van Epps won decisively on Election Day (57% to 43%). Republican turnout efforts during in-person voting proved decisive.
6
National Support on Both Sides
MAGA Inc. spent over $1 million supporting Van Epps. Democratic groups also invested approximately $1 million through the House Majority PAC and independent expenditure committees.

What This Election Covered

The special election on December 2, 2025, in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District resulted in Matt Van Epps’ victory. Van Epps received 53.9% of votes and Aftyn Behn received 45.0%, with the race called by the Associated Press. The final 8.9-point margin represented a 13-point decrease from Trump’s 22-point margin in the same district during the 2024 presidential election. The race featured competitive spending from both parties and notable Democratic gains in urban and suburban counties. The election was held to fill the vacancy left by Republican Rep. Mark Green’s resignation on July 20, 2025. The special primary and general election, held on October 7 and December 2, 2025 respectively, were closely observed by national political observers as potential indicators of voter sentiment heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

FEATURE IMAGE DETAILS: Matt Van Epps speaks with supporters on the campaign trail in Tennessee’s 7th District, photographed during his 2025 special election run. The moment captures how local outreach shaped a race that unexpectedly tightened, raising questions about what influences voter shifts in historically strongholds. (Photo: Matt Van Epps Campaign / X)

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