When the Map Moves and the Votes Follow
One incumbent out. Four runoffs set. A redistricted state that changed who runs against whom — and who survives to November.
One Night, Multiple Upsets — Here Is What Happened in Texas
One House Republican lost his seat outright in Texas’ March 3, 2026 primary elections, and four other House members will face 12-week runoff campaigns ahead of the May 26 runoff date. The night produced results that cut across both parties — driven by a combination of intra-Republican ideological clashes, mid-decade redistricting forced matchups, and a live House Ethics probe.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), a four-term Navy SEAL veteran, became the first sitting member of Congress to lose a renomination bid in the entire 2026 midterm cycle. State Rep. Steve Toth — an ordained pastor and one of the Texas Legislature’s most conservative members — defeated Crenshaw with approximately 56% of the vote to Crenshaw’s 41%, with 95% of precincts reporting. The central issue: Crenshaw was the only Texas Republican House member on the ballot without an endorsement from President Trump.
Beyond CD-2, four additional races went to runoff — in TX-23, TX-18, TX-33, and the U.S. Senate contest. A staggering 30 House Democrats nationally are now facing at least one primary challenger who has raised $100,000 or more. A dozen sitting members have been out-raised by their rivals — a dynamic that spans far beyond Texas alone. There is less of a concerted push to unseat Republicans, but mid-cycle redistricting and the absence of Trump endorsements are making things complicated on that side as well.
Flip each card to see the full result, key numbers, and direct source links for each contested race.
Chart based on 95% precincts reported. Source: Texas Secretary of State results portal.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), Navy SEAL veteran and four-term congressman, became the first House incumbent to lose renomination in the 2026 midterm cycle.
Select a factor below to read what drove each outcome. Each section is backed by first-hand primary sources.
“Congressional District 2 voters want a representative in D.C. who will stand firm in his convictions. I won’t let them down.”
“If you think I’m not MAGA enough, then you’re not following me on social media, that’s the reality. I’m out there defending his policies pretty hard and have defended them in extremely hard places in the past.”
“This is a people-powered movement to take on this broken, corrupt political system.”
Four House races and one Senate contest advance to a 12-week runoff. Here’s where each matchup stands based on primary night results.
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas, TX-23) heads into a May 26 runoff against Brandon Herrera while a House Ethics Committee Investigative Subcommittee probe — established March 4, 2026 — runs concurrently.
The Ethics Committee’s March 4, 2026 press release is the primary source. Here is what it says and what is on record.
The House Committee on Ethics announced the establishment of an Investigative Subcommittee to examine allegations concerning Representative Tony Gonzales, per its March 4, 2026 press release. The full press release PDF is the primary document on record. The probe concerns allegations involving a deceased former staffer, Regina Santos-Aviles.
Gonzales heads into the May 26 runoff against Brandon Herrera — “The AK Guy,” a gun-rights influencer and past opponent — with the Ethics subcommittee investigation running in parallel. In the primary, Herrera closed within 3 points of Gonzales (41% vs. 44%), outspending the incumbent on advertisements in the final stretch — a rare feat for a non-incumbent challenger in a congressional primary.
All figures from Federal Election Commission filings. Links go directly to FEC candidate and committee pages.
Scroll right on mobile to see all columns. Source: Texas Secretary of State results portal.
| Office | Leading / Decided | Status | Key Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate (D) | James Talarico def. Jasmine Crockett | Decided | Talarico ~53%. Ran on a populist platform. |
| U.S. Senate (R) | Cornyn vs. Paxton | Runoff May 26 | Neither cleared 50%. |
| Agriculture Comm. (R) | Nate Sheets def. Sid Miller | Decided | Sheets backed by Gov. Abbott. Miller received Trump endorsement but lost to early-voting lead. |
| TX-2 (R) | Steve Toth def. Dan Crenshaw | Incumbent Defeated | Toth ~56%, Crenshaw ~41%. First House loss of 2026 cycle. |
| TX-23 (R) | Gonzales vs. Herrera | Runoff May 26 | Ethics probe active. 44% vs. 41%. |
| TX-18 (D) | Green vs. Menefee | Runoff May 26 | Redistricting-forced matchup. Two incumbents, one seat. |
| TX-33 (D) | Allred vs. Johnson | Runoff May 26 | Allred 44%, Johnson 33%. Dallas-area seat. |
The 2026 Texas primary results will reshape the Texas congressional delegation’s composition when the 120th Congress convenes. Four runoff races will determine which candidates advance to the November general election.
What Was Covered: A Primary Night Summary
The March 3, 2026 Texas primary elections were covered above across seven key races — congressional and statewide. The results, per the Texas Secretary of State’s official results portal, included the defeat of Rep. Dan Crenshaw in CD-2, where Steve Toth received approximately 56% of the vote to Crenshaw’s 41% with 95% of precincts reporting. Crenshaw’s loss was noted as the first instance of a sitting House member losing renomination in the 2026 midterm cycle.
Four races were covered as advancing to the May 26 runoff: TX-23 (Gonzales vs. Herrera), TX-18 (Green vs. Menefee), TX-33 (Allred vs. Johnson), and the U.S. Senate contest (Cornyn vs. Paxton). The House Committee on Ethics established its Investigative Subcommittee regarding Rep. Gonzales on March 4, 2026 — the day after the primary. Statewide, Nate Sheets defeated three-term incumbent Sid Miller for Agriculture Commissioner, and James Talarico secured the Democratic Senate nomination with 53% of the vote.
The piece also covered the redistricting context: Texas’ mid-decade HB 4 maps, the federal court blocking those maps for 2026, and the Supreme Court docket filings tied to the emergency applications. Voting process changes in Dallas and Williamson counties — where county-wide vote centers were discontinued — were covered as a factor in reported election-day confusion. All election records from this primary are subject to the 22-month retention period under Texas Election Code §172. The broader national political backdrop — including which incumbents face well-funded challengers — was also included as context for the Texas results.
When the Map Moves and the Votes Follow
One incumbent out. Four runoffs set. A redistricted state that changed who runs against whom — and who survives to November.
One Night, Multiple Upsets — Here Is What Happened in Texas
One House Republican lost his seat outright in Texas' March 3, 2026 primary elections, and four other House members will face 12-week runoff campaigns ahead of the May 26 runoff date. The night produced results that cut across both parties — driven by a combination of intra-Republican ideological clashes, mid-decade redistricting forced matchups, and a live House Ethics probe.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), a four-term Navy SEAL veteran, became the first sitting member of Congress to lose a renomination bid in the entire 2026 midterm cycle. State Rep. Steve Toth — an ordained pastor and one of the Texas Legislature's most conservative members — defeated Crenshaw with approximately 56% of the vote to Crenshaw's 41%, with 95% of precincts reporting. The central issue: Crenshaw was the only Texas Republican House member on the ballot without an endorsement from President Trump.
Beyond CD-2, four additional races went to runoff — in TX-23, TX-18, TX-33, and the U.S. Senate contest. A staggering 30 House Democrats nationally are now facing at least one primary challenger who has raised $100,000 or more. A dozen sitting members have been out-raised by their rivals — a dynamic that spans far beyond Texas alone.
District by District: Results at a Glance
Each card shows the district and outcome. Tap or click to flip for the full numbers, key context, and a direct link to the primary source for that race.
Vote Share — TX-2 and TX-23
Based on 95% precincts reported. Source: Texas Secretary of State results portal. The charts below show how wide each margin was — and why the TX-23 result sends both candidates into a runoff.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), Navy SEAL veteran and four-term congressman, became the first House incumbent to lose renomination in the 2026 midterm cycle. (Official portrait, U.S. House of Representatives)
Why Did This Happen? Select a Factor Below
Tuesday's results weren't caused by a single factor. Three distinct forces — endorsements, redistricting, and money — each played a role. Select a tab to read what drove each outcome, backed by first-hand primary sources.
"Congressional District 2 voters want a representative in D.C. who will stand firm in his convictions. I won't let them down."
"If you think I'm not MAGA enough, then you're not following me on social media, that's the reality. I'm out there defending his policies pretty hard and have defended them in extremely hard places in the past."
"This is a people-powered movement to take on this broken, corrupt political system."
Runoff Race Tracker — What's on the Ballot Next
Four House races and one Senate contest advance to a 12-week runoff. Here's where each matchup stands based on primary night results. The progress bars reflect primary vote share — not projected runoff outcomes.
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas, TX-23) heads into a May 26 runoff against Brandon Herrera while a House Ethics Committee Investigative Subcommittee probe — established March 4, 2026 — runs concurrently. (Official portrait, U.S. House of Representatives)
The Details Behind the Numbers
Three concurrent storylines are shaping the May 26 runoff landscape: an active Ethics probe, contested redistricting maps, and voting process changes that affected turnout on election day. Here is what the official records show.
The House Committee on Ethics announced the establishment of an Investigative Subcommittee to examine allegations concerning Representative Tony Gonzales, per its March 4, 2026 press release. The full press release PDF is the primary document on record. The probe concerns allegations involving a deceased former staffer, Regina Santos-Aviles.
Gonzales heads into the May 26 runoff against Brandon Herrera — "The AK Guy," a gun-rights influencer and past opponent — with the Ethics subcommittee investigation running in parallel. In the primary, Herrera closed within 3 points of Gonzales (41% vs. 44%), outspending the incumbent on advertisements in the final stretch.
The Money Snapshot — CD-2 and the Bigger Picture
All figures from Federal Election Commission filings. The CD-2 result is the clearest example this cycle of fundraising advantage failing to translate into votes. Links go directly to official FEC candidate and committee pages.
Statewide — All Key Races in One View
A complete reference for every significant race called or going to runoff on March 3, 2026. Scroll right on mobile to see all columns. Source: Texas Secretary of State results portal.
| Office | Leading / Decided | Status | Key Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate (D) | James Talarico def. Jasmine Crockett | Decided | Talarico ~53%. Ran on a populist platform. |
| U.S. Senate (R) | Cornyn vs. Paxton | Runoff May 26 | Neither cleared 50%. |
| Agriculture Comm. | Nate Sheets def. Sid Miller | Decided | Sheets backed by Gov. Abbott. Miller had Trump endorsement but lost to early-voting lead. |
| TX-2 (R) | Steve Toth def. Dan Crenshaw | Incumbent Defeated | Toth ~56%, Crenshaw ~41%. First House loss of 2026 cycle. |
| TX-23 (R) | Gonzales vs. Herrera | Runoff May 26 | Ethics probe active. 44% vs. 41%. |
| TX-18 (D) | Green vs. Menefee | Runoff May 26 | Redistricting-forced matchup. Two incumbents, one seat. |
| TX-33 (D) | Allred vs. Johnson | Runoff May 26 | Allred 44%, Johnson 33%. Dallas-area seat. |
The 2026 Texas primary results will reshape the Texas congressional delegation's composition when the 120th Congress convenes. Four runoff races will determine which candidates advance to the November general election.
Countdown to the May 26 Runoff
What Was Covered: A Primary Night Summary
The March 3, 2026 Texas primary elections were covered above across seven key races — congressional and statewide. The results, per the Texas Secretary of State's official results portal, included the defeat of Rep. Dan Crenshaw in CD-2, where Steve Toth received approximately 56% of the vote to Crenshaw's 41% with 95% of precincts reporting. Crenshaw's loss was noted as the first instance of a sitting House member losing renomination in the 2026 midterm cycle.
Four races were covered as advancing to the May 26 runoff: TX-23 (Gonzales vs. Herrera), TX-18 (Green vs. Menefee), TX-33 (Allred vs. Johnson), and the U.S. Senate contest (Cornyn vs. Paxton). The House Committee on Ethics established its Investigative Subcommittee regarding Rep. Gonzales on March 4, 2026 — the day after the primary. Statewide, Nate Sheets defeated three-term incumbent Sid Miller for Agriculture Commissioner, and James Talarico secured the Democratic Senate nomination with 53% of the vote.
The piece also covered the redistricting context: Texas' mid-decade HB 4 maps, the federal court blocking those maps for 2026, and the Supreme Court docket filings tied to the emergency applications. Voting process changes in Dallas and Williamson counties were covered as a factor in reported election-day confusion. All election records from this primary are subject to the 22-month retention period under Texas Election Code §172. The broader national political backdrop — including which incumbents face well-funded challengers — was also included as context for the Texas results.
